{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6405cbee-f6c3-45ec-a068-97bb7fda6df3", "symbol": "S7XP", "name": "Invesco EURO STOXX Optimised Banks UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.684, "architecture_energy": 89.237, "architecture_maturity": 34.261, "architecture_confidence": 87.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 77.11, "upward_expansion": 95.17, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 20354.533333, 19961.609091, 19123.692857, 18505.536559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21120.0, "trend_reference": 17924.716667, "distance_from_trend": 0.178261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11720.827048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.801921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.606655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.184653, "excess_performance": 0.133418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.801921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17029, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.146067, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.221267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6766, "relative_activity": 0.956751, "balance": 2.221267, "dry_up": 0.836804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031796, "annualized_volatility": 0.281175, "from_high_reference": -0.010793, "from_low_reference": 0.456672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17924.716667, "fair_value_reference": 11720.827048, "structural_low": 14755.856445, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.027884, "positive_rate": 0.725, "directional_follow_through": 0.725, "median_excess_return": 0.022315, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.151504, "worst_return": -0.268264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.053491, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024365, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.251074, "worst_return": -0.07852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.124705, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.063941, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.499414, "worst_return": -0.187488, "sufficient": 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19552.8, 19164.636364, 18372.909524, 17969.75914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19904.0, "volume": 3720, "typical_volume": 8262.35, "trend": 17705.166667, "fair_value": 11539.403971, "relative_strength": 10.460087, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.931993, "energy": 85.7327, "activity_lines": [ 19661.2, 19372.909091, 18587.885714, 18117.466667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20402.5, "volume": 10635, "typical_volume": 7105.7, "trend": 17802.25, "fair_value": 11627.612305, "relative_strength": 11.420046, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.299114, "energy": 79.639309, "activity_lines": [ 19925.7, 19626.181818, 18832.890476, 18291.488172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21120.0, "volume": 6766, "typical_volume": 7071.85, "trend": 17924.716667, "fair_value": 11720.827048, "relative_strength": 14.606655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.684201, "energy": 89.237495, "activity_lines": [ 20354.533333, 19961.609091, 19123.692857, 18505.536559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }