{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6406a8aa-2f9d-4f1d-ad12-b5c32cbd9aa7", "symbol": "EGUSAS", "name": "UBS MSCI EM SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.608, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.335, "architecture_energy": 19.264, "architecture_maturity": 64.673, "architecture_confidence": 87.978, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.33, "rotation_up": 20.36, "upward_expansion": 47.95, "deceleration": 85.08, "rotation_down": 36.32, "downward_expansion": 25.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.138665, 85.30509, 85.384904, 83.637505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 85.18, "trend_reference": 81.441333, "distance_from_trend": 0.045906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.467368, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.408694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.425507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101086, "excess_performance": 0.018202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.408694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014255, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101086, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.779563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2852, "relative_activity": 0.468963, "balance": 1.779563, "dry_up": 0.678163, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042724, "annualized_volatility": 0.264288, "from_high_reference": -0.065394, "from_low_reference": 0.352063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.441333, "fair_value_reference": 60.467368, "structural_low": 71.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005733, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.146631, "worst_return": -0.052381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025482, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.035759, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.210651, "worst_return": -0.002045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036996, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093624, "worst_return": 0.022644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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87.650909, 84.996191, 82.823269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.099998, "volume": 3166, "typical_volume": 8120.0, "trend": 80.216334, "fair_value": 59.785829, "relative_strength": -0.327351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.815513, "energy": 22.365108, "activity_lines": [ 85.842666, 86.714, 84.987048, 82.971828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.339996, "volume": 5946, "typical_volume": 7693.65, "trend": 80.651667, "fair_value": 59.999547, "relative_strength": 1.112317, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.275098, "energy": 22.907093, "activity_lines": [ 84.615332, 86.086908, 85.091, 83.173355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.739998, "volume": 4533, "typical_volume": 6824.5, "trend": 81.074, "fair_value": 60.227496, "relative_strength": 1.275058, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.287811, "energy": 22.607638, "activity_lines": [ 84.041331, 85.546544, 85.193571, 83.372602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.18, "volume": 2852, "typical_volume": 6081.5, "trend": 81.441333, "fair_value": 60.467368, "relative_strength": 1.425507, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.335209, "energy": 19.264154, "activity_lines": [ 84.138665, 85.30509, 85.384904, 83.637505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }