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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.704, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.76, "architecture_energy": 38.116, "architecture_maturity": 21.936, "architecture_confidence": 82.138, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.46, "rotation_up": 52.57, "upward_expansion": 80.81, "deceleration": 52.42, "rotation_down": 21.93, "downward_expansion": 5.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.866, 133.724182, 131.87161, 128.192281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 134.98, "trend_reference": 122.355584, "distance_from_trend": 0.103178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 167.655078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.161418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251907, "excess_performance": 0.126282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05213, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251907, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.074647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4340925, "relative_activity": 1.31281, "balance": 1.074647, "dry_up": 0.806407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063838, "annualized_volatility": 0.381338, "from_high_reference": -0.069103, "from_low_reference": 0.354879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.355584, "fair_value_reference": 167.655078, "structural_low": 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"trend": 120.762161, "fair_value": 169.547224, "relative_strength": 2.324273, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.176713, "energy": 41.089106, "activity_lines": [ 133.644, 132.057612, 129.604664, 125.589964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.1, "volume": 1944094, "typical_volume": 3342291.6, "trend": 121.096159, "fair_value": 168.818213, "relative_strength": 1.064464, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.534774, "energy": 41.693257, "activity_lines": [ 133.598, 132.216182, 130.23019, 126.321437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 136.71, "volume": 2274345, "typical_volume": 3278143.3, "trend": 121.595757, "fair_value": 168.208934, "relative_strength": 3.494393, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.262572, "energy": 48.667464, "activity_lines": [ 134.748667, 133.163455, 131.20391, 127.328782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.98, "volume": 4340925, "typical_volume": 3306589.2, "trend": 122.355584, "fair_value": 167.655078, "relative_strength": -1.161418, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.759517, "energy": 38.115633, "activity_lines": [ 134.866, 133.724182, 131.87161, 128.192281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }