{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64149604-827f-4f4d-b9d7-5eb9a60ff059", "symbol": "ARIP", "name": "ARIP Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.269, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.202, "architecture_energy": 29.55, "architecture_maturity": 26.114, "architecture_confidence": 62.679, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.07, "rotation_up": 44.65, "upward_expansion": 73.94, "deceleration": 61.69, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 2.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.462, 0.460545, 0.45481, 0.449968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.46, "trend_reference": 0.44177, "distance_from_trend": 0.041265, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.529826, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.482628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14618, "excess_performance": -0.046145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041265, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131791, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -6.5e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.282007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1310200, "relative_activity": 0.846101, "balance": 7.282007, "dry_up": 0.82881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048495, "annualized_volatility": 0.194893, "from_high_reference": -0.259392, "from_low_reference": 0.375417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.44177, "fair_value_reference": 0.529826, "structural_low": 0.401333, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.060468, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.051139, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.27603, "worst_return": -0.229167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069565, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.091969, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.28866, "worst_return": -0.23077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088818, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.177778, "worst_return": -0.301887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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48.423181, "activity_lines": [ 0.464, 0.458182, 0.451333, 0.445806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.46, "volume": 924800, "typical_volume": 1775570.0, "trend": 0.438496, "fair_value": 0.534246, "relative_strength": -10.639413, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.02863, "energy": 51.511368, "activity_lines": [ 0.464, 0.459273, 0.452619, 0.447279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.46, "volume": 883800, "typical_volume": 1792150.0, "trend": 0.439815, "fair_value": 0.532065, "relative_strength": -9.372346, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.450525, "energy": 43.520272, "activity_lines": [ 0.463333, 0.46, 0.453762, 0.448666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.46, "volume": 1310200, "typical_volume": 1548515.0, "trend": 0.44177, "fair_value": 0.529826, "relative_strength": -8.482628, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.202254, "energy": 29.549791, "activity_lines": [ 0.462, 0.460545, 0.45481, 0.449968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }