{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6419a89e-a17b-4589-bdbb-34df3843cca7", "symbol": "XMEM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.441, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.227, "architecture_energy": 20.358, "architecture_maturity": 64.428, "architecture_confidence": 86.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.69, "rotation_up": 16.34, "upward_expansion": 45.68, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 41.34, "downward_expansion": 28.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6052.6, 6164.527273, 6173.295238, 6044.563441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6124.0, "trend_reference": 5872.383333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4489.753205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.795849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115178, "excess_performance": 0.063943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093537, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.400908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6523, "relative_activity": 1.544399, "balance": 1.400908, "dry_up": 1.462716, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042839, "annualized_volatility": 0.235253, "from_high_reference": -0.094752, "from_low_reference": 0.35337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5872.383333, "fair_value_reference": 4489.753205, "structural_low": 5133.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.01149, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.010362, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.133385, "worst_return": -0.080423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02546, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009802, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.231456, "worst_return": -0.032955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020063, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02562, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264549, "worst_return": -0.035065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001822, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", 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5785.6, "fair_value": 4444.894231, "relative_strength": 2.956228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.692456, "energy": 25.173916, "activity_lines": [ 6227.1, 6290.563636, 6156.25, 5999.810753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6041.5, "volume": 11592, "typical_volume": 4279.65, "trend": 5819.15, "fair_value": 4459.272436, "relative_strength": 3.409252, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.639229, "energy": 25.215837, "activity_lines": [ 6129.433333, 6244.972727, 6164.321429, 6016.32043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5978.5, "volume": 1605, "typical_volume": 3988.9, "trend": 5845.583333, "fair_value": 4473.733974, "relative_strength": 0.886476, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.060498, "energy": 22.874893, "activity_lines": [ 6052.166667, 6189.845455, 6163.278571, 6026.601075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6124.0, "volume": 6523, "typical_volume": 4223.65, "trend": 5872.383333, "fair_value": 4489.753205, "relative_strength": 2.795849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.226806, "energy": 20.357915, "activity_lines": [ 6052.6, 6164.527273, 6173.295238, 6044.563441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }