{ "ticker": { "uuid": "641e5375-4c5b-43af-9aba-adc9568cae0d", "symbol": "5UX", "name": "Oxley Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.213, "architecture_energy": 71.706, "architecture_maturity": 73.703, "architecture_confidence": 84.971, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 12.95, "upward_expansion": 14.16, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 71.89, "downward_expansion": 87.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0726, 0.074073, 0.076576, 0.078363 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.071, "trend_reference": 0.0808, "distance_from_trend": -0.121287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.086372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.0646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174419, "excess_performance": -0.329254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 973700, "relative_activity": 0.387389, "balance": 0.160251, "dry_up": 1.002538, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047671, "annualized_volatility": 0.19606, "from_high_reference": -0.377193, "from_low_reference": 0.014286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0808, "fair_value_reference": 0.086372, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.024394, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.648148, "median_excess_return": -0.018802, "regime_survival": 0.925926, "best_return": 0.084845, "worst_return": -0.170732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.068182, "positive_rate": 0.058824, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.101689, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.177419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.109477, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.226497, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.573529, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 2241300, "typical_volume": 2403205.0, "trend": 0.081867, "fair_value": 0.087019, "relative_strength": -29.903113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.509318, "energy": 62.903143, "activity_lines": [ 0.074733, 0.075982, 0.07809, 0.079667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.072, "volume": 3493000, "typical_volume": 2509655.0, "trend": 0.081333, "fair_value": 0.086705, "relative_strength": -32.239028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.568805, "energy": 67.332222, "activity_lines": [ 0.073733, 0.075036, 0.077352, 0.07903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.071, "volume": 973700, "typical_volume": 2513495.0, "trend": 0.0808, "fair_value": 0.086372, "relative_strength": -33.0646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.213314, "energy": 71.705536, "activity_lines": [ 0.0726, 0.074073, 0.076576, 0.078363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }