{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64202d46-60fe-4c19-9a5b-6cbc165b1576", "symbol": "XLBS", "name": "Invesco Materials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.076, "architecture_energy": 18.667, "architecture_maturity": 32.376, "architecture_confidence": 80.041, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.31, "rotation_up": 35.53, "upward_expansion": 54.34, "deceleration": 84.08, "rotation_down": 29.92, "downward_expansion": 22.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 627.5, 627.853641, 627.295004, 625.704305 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 646.799988, "trend_reference": 623.568337, "distance_from_trend": 0.037256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 543.830194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.906191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032897, "excess_performance": -0.018339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009062, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.110948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2424, "relative_activity": 1.053776, "balance": 0.110948, "dry_up": 2.577164, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027086, "annualized_volatility": 0.188334, "from_high_reference": -0.019554, "from_low_reference": 0.252517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 623.568337, "fair_value_reference": 543.830194, "structural_low": 563.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.030104, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.001321, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.050596, "worst_return": -0.130368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084716, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.051232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129416, "worst_return": -0.141238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055963, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003719, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.147957, "worst_return": -0.224211, 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"energy": 17.66524, "activity_lines": [ 619.690006, 624.062735, 625.025006, 624.080865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 646.799988, "volume": 2424, "typical_volume": 2300.3, "trend": 623.568337, "fair_value": 543.830194, "relative_strength": 0.906191, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.076253, "energy": 18.667049, "activity_lines": [ 627.5, 627.853641, 627.295004, 625.704305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }