{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6421add5-29d6-4d0a-8993-ab4523b66ead", "symbol": "BLC", "name": "Bastide Le Confort M\u00e9dical SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.352, "architecture_energy": 64.652, "architecture_maturity": 9.303, "architecture_confidence": 87.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.85, "rotation_up": 11.74, "upward_expansion": 13.57, "deceleration": 38.62, "rotation_down": 67.77, "downward_expansion": 86.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.12, 23.441818, 24.173333, 24.319785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.75, "trend_reference": 24.365, "distance_from_trend": -0.066284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.606538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.037173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034091, "excess_performance": -0.01922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10193, "relative_activity": 0.976224, "balance": 0.614521, "dry_up": 0.678894, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049028, "annualized_volatility": 0.310733, "from_high_reference": -0.222222, "from_low_reference": 0.036446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.365, "fair_value_reference": 23.606538, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.005254, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.01891, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.280178, "worst_return": -0.137255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.00674, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.396296, "worst_return": -0.234875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071371, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.152357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435897, "worst_return": -0.300518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 23.722564, "relative_strength": -10.450515, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.955292, "energy": 38.977756, "activity_lines": [ 23.89, 24.369091, 24.73619, 24.657957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.549999, "volume": 4230, "typical_volume": 13276.0, "trend": 24.49, "fair_value": 23.699487, "relative_strength": -9.030387, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.688797, "energy": 24.824213, "activity_lines": [ 23.79, 24.109091, 24.618095, 24.595161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.0, "volume": 5426, "typical_volume": 11810.5, "trend": 24.471667, "fair_value": 23.67032, "relative_strength": -10.827836, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.886267, "energy": 46.408902, "activity_lines": [ 23.506666, 23.806363, 24.459524, 24.499032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.4, "volume": 8505, "typical_volume": 11165.75, "trend": 24.456666, "fair_value": 23.640192, "relative_strength": -10.083213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.499027, "energy": 55.915492, "activity_lines": [ 23.373333, 23.655454, 24.346428, 24.429892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.75, "volume": 10193, "typical_volume": 10441.25, "trend": 24.365, "fair_value": 23.606538, "relative_strength": -14.037173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.351953, "energy": 64.652086, "activity_lines": [ 23.12, 23.441818, 24.173333, 24.319785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }