{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6423ef09-af9e-47b8-9691-d2d3594e5785", "symbol": "FOAF", "name": "Fin.Ouest Africain", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.406, "architecture_energy": 76.661, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.33, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.88, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 67.79, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.96, 14.329091, 15.232857, 16.46129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 18.596667, "distance_from_trend": -0.279441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.684936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.548593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.921886, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.336634, "excess_performance": -0.389945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.548593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.336634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.077369, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.274662, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.427508, "from_high_reference": -0.553333, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.596667, "fair_value_reference": 29.684936, "structural_low": 13.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.014107, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 1.294872, "worst_return": -0.643243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.228131, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.325831, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.787234, "worst_return": -0.614286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062143, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.115448, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.914894, "worst_return": -0.784946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.628571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.443548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.274611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.509434, "active": false 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"down", "direction": -67.993015, "energy": 68.697878, "activity_lines": [ 14.833333, 14.92, 16.43381, 17.929247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.95, "trend": 20.01, "fair_value": 30.533654, "relative_strength": -21.796889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.13024, "energy": 68.296732, "activity_lines": [ 14.82, 14.823636, 16.16, 17.575054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.95, "trend": 19.703334, "fair_value": 30.256731, "relative_strength": -22.13896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.559072, "energy": 68.264915, "activity_lines": [ 14.806667, 14.82, 15.911905, 17.238925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4, "volume": 440, "typical_volume": 25.75, "trend": 19.15, "fair_value": 29.970833, "relative_strength": -30.515981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.596911, "energy": 77.896593, "activity_lines": [ 14.333333, 14.561818, 15.55619, 16.832258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 25.85, "trend": 18.596667, "fair_value": 29.684936, "relative_strength": -31.921886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.405692, "energy": 76.661387, "activity_lines": [ 13.96, 14.329091, 15.232857, 16.46129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }