{ "ticker": { "uuid": "642a0f9a-c58a-485d-8f19-1d74061a47e3", "symbol": "ENGI4", "name": "Energisa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.067, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.471, "architecture_energy": 22.952, "architecture_maturity": 20.904, "architecture_confidence": 72.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.02, "rotation_up": 24.25, "upward_expansion": 15.02, "deceleration": 37.9, "rotation_down": 34.59, "downward_expansion": 58.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.234, 9.213818, 9.306905, 9.458129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 9.572, "distance_from_trend": -0.081697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.41522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.366497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078616, "excess_performance": -0.021568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045456, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32900, "relative_activity": 1.066105, "balance": 0.600988, "dry_up": 0.726669, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06931, "annualized_volatility": 0.3652, "from_high_reference": -0.235652, "from_low_reference": 0.226614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.572, "fair_value_reference": 7.41522, "structural_low": 8.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009957, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.007736, "regime_survival": 0.230769, "best_return": 0.164179, "worst_return": -0.094366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004015, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.022719, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.257642, "worst_return": -0.082261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021344, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.154989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334887, "worst_return": -0.112066, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05781, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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9.411476, 9.499849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.0, "volume": 39000, "typical_volume": 39645.0, "trend": 9.504, "fair_value": 7.352111, "relative_strength": 2.74901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.126558, "energy": 9.46248, "activity_lines": [ 9.283333, 9.134545, 9.444, 9.534108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.4, "volume": 23900, "typical_volume": 39065.0, "trend": 9.521, "fair_value": 7.367501, "relative_strength": -1.022203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.35474, "energy": 11.458095, "activity_lines": [ 9.382, 9.178727, 9.419714, 9.527398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.32, "volume": 11800, "typical_volume": 36965.0, "trend": 9.543, "fair_value": 7.383728, "relative_strength": -1.952241, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.661805, "energy": 22.52629, "activity_lines": [ 9.424, 9.219273, 9.392095, 9.51443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 21100, "typical_volume": 34340.0, "trend": 9.569667, "fair_value": 7.401639, "relative_strength": -2.661839, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.991722, "energy": 22.36223, "activity_lines": [ 9.455333, 9.280727, 9.379714, 9.50843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 32900, "typical_volume": 30860.0, "trend": 9.572, "fair_value": 7.41522, "relative_strength": -6.366497, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.471232, "energy": 22.952073, "activity_lines": [ 9.234, 9.213818, 9.306905, 9.458129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }