{ "ticker": { "uuid": "642a5746-8e46-4964-aa6b-aed15c9eb4e8", "symbol": "SPG", "name": "Stride Property Group", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.369, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.778, "architecture_energy": 27.499, "architecture_maturity": 4.865, "architecture_confidence": 47.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.65, "rotation_up": 54.76, "upward_expansion": 38.03, "deceleration": 28.66, "rotation_down": 16.52, "downward_expansion": 22.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.17, 1.161727, 1.147684, 1.149414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.155, "trend_reference": 1.167625, "distance_from_trend": -0.010813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.186633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.03207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056955, "excess_performance": -0.085229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040275, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.969941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1537205, "relative_activity": 0.884095, "balance": 3.969941, "dry_up": 0.914341, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035004, "annualized_volatility": 0.221238, "from_high_reference": -0.221579, "from_low_reference": 0.114875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.167625, "fair_value_reference": 1.186633, "structural_low": 1.035991, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007687, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02063, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.072179, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039475, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197427, "worst_return": -0.049388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122509, "worst_return": -0.147338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103039, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096337, "active": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.140041, "energy": 13.149366, "activity_lines": [ 1.145, 1.135745, 1.132473, 1.150826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.2, "volume": 1904407, "typical_volume": 2261293.7, "trend": 1.186054, "fair_value": 1.188144, "relative_strength": -6.048039, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.076715, "energy": 20.381771, "activity_lines": [ 1.165667, 1.148168, 1.138455, 1.151482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.205, "volume": 1858950, "typical_volume": 2095646.9, "trend": 1.18146, "fair_value": 1.187702, "relative_strength": -6.113315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.063096, "energy": 46.651033, "activity_lines": [ 1.181667, 1.159857, 1.144912, 1.152705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.15, "volume": 1058615, "typical_volume": 1875629.3, "trend": 1.174541, "fair_value": 1.18707, "relative_strength": -9.752374, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.622402, "energy": 35.766984, "activity_lines": [ 1.175333, 1.160437, 1.146036, 1.150675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.155, "volume": 1537205, "typical_volume": 1738732.5, "trend": 1.167625, "fair_value": 1.186633, "relative_strength": -10.03207, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.777725, "energy": 27.499086, "activity_lines": [ 1.17, 1.161727, 1.147684, 1.149414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }