{ "ticker": { "uuid": "642ac7b2-04a6-419e-9a6c-ad3c481d4c91", "symbol": "PANR", "name": "Pantheon Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.665, "architecture_energy": 12.618, "architecture_maturity": 54.823, "architecture_confidence": 73.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.94, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 49.21, "deceleration": 80.94, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 24.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.131453, 0.134718, 0.134979, 0.126651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1384, "trend_reference": 0.11323, "distance_from_trend": 0.222291, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.250777, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.448115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.169627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.760814, "excess_performance": 0.709579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.448115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243793, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.760814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.890926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23745382, "relative_activity": 0.550371, "balance": 1.890926, "dry_up": 0.608031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212133, "annualized_volatility": 0.899798, "from_high_reference": -0.583847, "from_low_reference": 1.065672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.11323, "fair_value_reference": 0.250777, "structural_low": 0.0689, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029255, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.032912, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.470732, "worst_return": -0.208429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.215986, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.205898, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.728716, "worst_return": -0.365722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010149, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.159864, "worst_return": -0.299524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.356132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.355214, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.1365, "volume": 22191623, "typical_volume": 63492590.85, "trend": 0.110773, "fair_value": 0.250292, "relative_strength": -26.997035, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.06607, "energy": 20.69794, "activity_lines": [ 0.138667, 0.143193, 0.132567, 0.121309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1366, "volume": 25025485, "typical_volume": 61115266.6, "trend": 0.10926, "fair_value": 0.250386, "relative_strength": -26.604337, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.900912, "energy": 19.73188, "activity_lines": [ 0.137033, 0.142124, 0.134046, 0.122975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1283, "volume": 23363411, "typical_volume": 56054268.85, "trend": 0.110357, "fair_value": 0.250511, "relative_strength": -30.868971, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.147997, "energy": 16.808987, "activity_lines": [ 0.134067, 0.139047, 0.13444, 0.124204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1213, "volume": 32798108, "typical_volume": 47479525.35, "trend": 0.11141, "fair_value": 0.250588, "relative_strength": -34.422059, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.117491, "energy": 15.043819, "activity_lines": [ 0.129793, 0.134922, 0.133931, 0.12491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1384, "volume": 23745382, "typical_volume": 43144335.9, "trend": 0.11323, "fair_value": 0.250777, "relative_strength": -24.169627, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.665431, "energy": 12.617738, "activity_lines": [ 0.131453, 0.134718, 0.134979, 0.126651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }