{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6432f6be-7259-4d83-845f-900c2a7e1ff6", "symbol": "AVL", "name": "Avalon Advanced Materials Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.927, "architecture_energy": 30.309, "architecture_maturity": 52.927, "architecture_confidence": 84.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.04, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 10.46, "deceleration": 57.24, "rotation_down": 44.84, "downward_expansion": 72.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.417333, 5.512, 5.99981, 6.238194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.1, "trend_reference": 6.592667, "distance_from_trend": -0.226413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.588333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.466261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271429, "excess_performance": -0.39185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.226413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71500, "relative_activity": 0.024877, "balance": 0.125773, "dry_up": 0.032611, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242232, "annualized_volatility": 0.942837, "from_high_reference": -0.66, "from_low_reference": 0.7 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.592667, "fair_value_reference": 6.588333, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.009878, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.127833, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.021448, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.680287, "energy": 34.076758, "activity_lines": [ 5.793333, 5.941818, 6.345714, 6.516989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 103200, "typical_volume": 3216301.25, "trend": 6.732667, "fair_value": 6.717821, "relative_strength": -13.591591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.200536, "energy": 24.122022, "activity_lines": [ 5.928, 5.905818, 6.29819, 6.471871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 100700, "typical_volume": 3056421.25, "trend": 6.689333, "fair_value": 6.651795, "relative_strength": -31.941223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.150017, "energy": 34.303017, "activity_lines": [ 5.562667, 5.651636, 6.126857, 6.340731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.1, "volume": 71500, "typical_volume": 2874186.25, "trend": 6.592667, "fair_value": 6.588333, "relative_strength": -28.466261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.926717, "energy": 30.308867, "activity_lines": [ 5.417333, 5.512, 5.99981, 6.238194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }