{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6433dcac-4f69-4722-9dda-4db86cb32e25", "symbol": "WIX", "name": "Wickes Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.086, "architecture_energy": 12.606, "architecture_maturity": 77.705, "architecture_confidence": 65.627, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.75, "rotation_up": 37.4, "upward_expansion": 28.33, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 14.47, "downward_expansion": 45.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 196.2, 192.327273, 190.473162, 196.570508 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 202.0, "trend_reference": 206.371397, "distance_from_trend": -0.021182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 178.483527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.545783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134615, "excess_performance": -0.18585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1454777, "relative_activity": 0.421447, "balance": 0.631792, "dry_up": 0.394012, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061901, "annualized_volatility": 0.402928, "from_high_reference": -0.207579, "from_low_reference": 0.193853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 206.371397, "fair_value_reference": 178.483527, "structural_low": 169.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026556, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.053784, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.12138, "worst_return": -0.163107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052188, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.045412, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.295796, "worst_return": -0.019417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020088, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1504, "worst_return": -0.004267, "sufficient": false }, 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"energy": 26.774484, "activity_lines": [ 187.426667, 183.563636, 190.920867, 200.133708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 192.4, "volume": 1507608, "typical_volume": 3651183.05, "trend": 210.08027, "fair_value": 177.340877, "relative_strength": -15.730623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.624836, "energy": 23.585902, "activity_lines": [ 189.8, 185.258182, 190.181769, 198.895151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 191.0, "volume": 1281268, "typical_volume": 3603557.45, "trend": 208.599553, "fair_value": 177.692474, "relative_strength": -16.896438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.602835, "energy": 21.44512, "activity_lines": [ 190.813333, 186.945454, 189.590367, 197.664166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.0, "volume": 1196644, "typical_volume": 3543120.5, "trend": 207.352158, "fair_value": 178.063337, "relative_strength": -14.883364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.902736, "energy": 18.129884, "activity_lines": [ 192.92, 189.356364, 189.750983, 196.915808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.0, "volume": 1454777, "typical_volume": 3451861.85, "trend": 206.371397, "fair_value": 178.483527, "relative_strength": -12.545783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.085893, "energy": 12.606389, "activity_lines": [ 196.2, 192.327273, 190.473162, 196.570508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }