{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6439392f-625d-4f8e-bdd6-8ed9b30d03a8", "symbol": "BEC", "name": "B&C Speakers S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.159, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.151, "architecture_energy": 7.416, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 45.876, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.6, "rotation_up": 31.69, "upward_expansion": 18.97, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 55.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.393333, 11.233636, 11.234395, 11.4069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.1, "trend_reference": 11.810762, "distance_from_trend": 0.024489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.856428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126759, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.436507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059829, "excess_performance": -0.230721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187996, "relative_activity": 2.149221, "balance": 1.352587, "dry_up": 1.300009, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04768, "annualized_volatility": 0.252777, "from_high_reference": -0.388889, "from_low_reference": 0.169082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.810762, "fair_value_reference": 13.856428, "structural_low": 10.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002688, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039462, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.138408, "worst_return": -0.151625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069959, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.043792, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149833, "worst_return": -0.138756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094916, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.057261, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.171171, "worst_return": -0.243924, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.765845, "energy": 36.392834, "activity_lines": [ 11.04, 11.075455, 11.207837, 11.523871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.9, "volume": 93416, "typical_volume": 79683.4, "trend": 11.986476, "fair_value": 13.876179, "relative_strength": -29.131087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.319624, "energy": 37.120024, "activity_lines": [ 10.993333, 11.036364, 11.16332, 11.446498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.15, "volume": 115686, "typical_volume": 84269.85, "trend": 11.877286, "fair_value": 13.86231, "relative_strength": -27.197893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.595649, "energy": 30.848411, "activity_lines": [ 11.04, 11.046364, 11.150422, 11.392531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.1, "volume": 187996, "typical_volume": 87471.7, "trend": 11.810762, "fair_value": 13.856428, "relative_strength": -22.436507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.151313, "energy": 7.415503, "activity_lines": [ 11.393333, 11.233636, 11.234395, 11.4069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }