{ "ticker": { "uuid": "643a50e2-80a6-477b-baa5-3e5e2d67af6e", "symbol": "STEL", "name": "STEL Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.422, "architecture_energy": 33.092, "architecture_maturity": 47.353, "architecture_confidence": 67.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.42, "rotation_up": 34.08, "upward_expansion": 61.85, "deceleration": 70.41, "rotation_down": 25.29, "downward_expansion": 16.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 560.31333, 564.492721, 535.798564, 517.787737 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 552.950012, "trend_reference": 496.488331, "distance_from_trend": 0.113722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 413.397755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.940728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141515, "excess_performance": 0.185224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113722, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.149407, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141515, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7745, "relative_activity": 0.411874, "balance": 0.522827, "dry_up": 0.595409, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076513, "annualized_volatility": 0.382991, "from_high_reference": -0.126875, "from_low_reference": 0.455132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 496.488331, "fair_value_reference": 413.397755, "structural_low": 415.700012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008325, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.001452, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.375298, "worst_return": -0.141958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058051, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030637, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.430344, "worst_return": -0.234009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114173, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.111457, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.651586, "worst_return": -0.23947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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504.311287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 555.549988, "volume": 14056, "typical_volume": 21186.55, "trend": 491.048331, "fair_value": 408.930768, "relative_strength": 20.834606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.23863, "energy": 42.009259, "activity_lines": [ 561.416663, 557.455447, 524.066422, 508.562899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 574.849976, "volume": 14723, "typical_volume": 19046.35, "trend": 493.766664, "fair_value": 411.180447, "relative_strength": 21.043254, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.453882, "energy": 38.842825, "activity_lines": [ 563.756657, 564.156353, 531.229515, 513.969457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 552.950012, "volume": 7745, "typical_volume": 18804.3, "trend": 496.488331, "fair_value": 413.397755, "relative_strength": 14.940728, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.422444, "energy": 33.0924, "activity_lines": [ 560.31333, 564.492721, 535.798564, 517.787737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }