{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6441cead-b2f8-40b2-bd3f-0a63566a725e", "symbol": "LABL", "name": "L&G Global Brands UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.278, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.26, "architecture_energy": 41.49, "architecture_maturity": 51.531, "architecture_confidence": 79.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.7, "rotation_up": 42.16, "upward_expansion": 67.68, "deceleration": 90.86, "rotation_down": 28.57, "downward_expansion": 14.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.601867, 15.578036, 15.488629, 15.218254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.94, "trend_reference": 14.914733, "distance_from_trend": 0.068742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.732387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.171172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107406, "excess_performance": -0.063486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.844477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17441, "relative_activity": 1.076881, "balance": 2.844477, "dry_up": 1.168309, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023125, "annualized_volatility": 0.1418, "from_high_reference": -0.003625, "from_low_reference": 0.197956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.914733, "fair_value_reference": 12.732387, "structural_low": 13.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009217, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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"activity_lines": [ 15.4968, 15.545855, 15.373257, 15.113695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 15745, "typical_volume": 15923.5, "trend": 14.875867, "fair_value": 12.710859, "relative_strength": -6.799262, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.100375, "energy": 28.578115, "activity_lines": [ 15.461733, 15.510436, 15.408171, 15.1496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.94, "volume": 17441, "typical_volume": 16195.85, "trend": 14.914733, "fair_value": 12.732387, "relative_strength": -6.171172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.259588, "energy": 41.489923, "activity_lines": [ 15.601867, 15.578036, 15.488629, 15.218254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }