{ "ticker": { "uuid": "644fd3d3-672f-4be6-a74f-9831b23f0181", "symbol": "ENAV", "name": "ENAV S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.552, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.837, "architecture_energy": 14.46, "architecture_maturity": 19.97, "architecture_confidence": 76.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.3, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 48.76, "deceleration": 79.37, "rotation_down": 29.88, "downward_expansion": 26.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.095533, 5.127616, 5.079212, 5.08167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 5.065657, "distance_from_trend": 0.024546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.879822, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33769, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.559815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045528, "excess_performance": -0.125364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024546, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029222, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024188, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045528, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.480506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4371070, "relative_activity": 1.738546, "balance": 1.480506, "dry_up": 0.96859, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046596, "annualized_volatility": 0.288772, "from_high_reference": -0.079787, "from_low_reference": 0.238663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.065657, "fair_value_reference": 3.879822, "structural_low": 4.480505, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002066, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.026888, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.113758, "worst_return": -0.100096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015881, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.04427, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.087007, "worst_return": -0.11399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036678, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087033, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137327, "worst_return": -0.123853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047694, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.138246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25069, "worst_return": -0.06016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.323605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045107, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.998794, "volume": 1714290, "typical_volume": 1663327.15, "trend": 3.299828, "fair_value": 3.172806, "relative_strength": -16.28584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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5.065833, 5.070858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.075, "volume": 2427847, "typical_volume": 2450827.45, "trend": 5.05519, "fair_value": 3.86621, "relative_strength": -7.008856, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.497497, "energy": 12.592699, "activity_lines": [ 5.070267, 5.115114, 5.067249, 5.072973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.19, "volume": 4371070, "typical_volume": 2514210.0, "trend": 5.065657, "fair_value": 3.879822, "relative_strength": -7.559815, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.836602, "energy": 14.459804, "activity_lines": [ 5.095533, 5.127616, 5.079212, 5.08167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }