{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6458fb74-86d0-4241-833b-0a5ee9f2a32b", "symbol": "MOLN", "name": "Molecular Partners AG ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.085, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.561, "architecture_energy": 20.633, "architecture_maturity": 30.293, "architecture_confidence": 58.233, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.75, "rotation_up": 21.31, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 61.48, "rotation_down": 35.86, "downward_expansion": 60.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.964293, 3.951169, 4.008098, 4.103903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.0501, "trend_reference": 4.22469, "distance_from_trend": -0.041326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.547651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.182842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138277, "excess_performance": -0.32573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138277, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7400, "relative_activity": 0.316765, "balance": 1.161129, "dry_up": 0.221811, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085533, "annualized_volatility": 0.455827, "from_high_reference": -0.244384, "from_low_reference": 0.170549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.22469, "fair_value_reference": 4.547651, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014441, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.016849, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.791005, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.122514, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.361624, "worst_return": -0.293333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.229565, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.207143, "worst_return": -0.314331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.316944, "energy": 29.557053, "activity_lines": [ 3.925447, 3.950376, 4.026595, 4.135018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.93, "volume": 1607, "typical_volume": 24836.65, "trend": 4.226353, "fair_value": 4.560406, "relative_strength": -12.692484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.888083, "energy": 27.033208, "activity_lines": [ 3.929187, 3.937582, 4.010937, 4.115275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0501, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 23361.15, "trend": 4.22469, "fair_value": 4.547651, "relative_strength": -14.182842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.560595, "energy": 20.632553, "activity_lines": [ 3.964293, 3.951169, 4.008098, 4.103903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }