{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6459f4f2-9cc8-4341-87d5-6680e464661d", "symbol": "GRF", "name": "Grifols, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.297, "architecture_energy": 58.555, "architecture_maturity": 8.472, "architecture_confidence": 72.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.1, "rotation_up": 70.44, "upward_expansion": 49.78, "deceleration": 23.96, "rotation_down": 16.75, "downward_expansion": 27.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.7888, 9.475704, 9.298251, 9.347619 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.14, "trend_reference": 9.603166, "distance_from_trend": 0.055902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.198486, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.579269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052336, "excess_performance": -0.226583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 580, "relative_activity": 6.740267, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.685067, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038941, "annualized_volatility": 0.28828, "from_high_reference": -0.214562, "from_low_reference": 0.195191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.603166, "fair_value_reference": 10.198486, "structural_low": 8.484, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.075478, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.063302, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.258261, "worst_return": -0.109545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059585, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.102611, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.295851, "worst_return": -0.186201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.185471, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.305743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12467, "worst_return": -0.462175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105863, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318548, "worst_return": -0.223375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222652, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007952, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.407815, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 290.1, "trend": 11.281773, "fair_value": 16.872741, "relative_strength": 25.242501, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.598349, "energy": 37.80701, "activity_lines": [ 9.052972, 9.074018, 9.177891, 9.517263 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.029982, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.9056, "fair_value": 10.327747, "relative_strength": -32.171515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.491088, "energy": 44.378903, "activity_lines": [ 9.012143, 9.060924, 9.136089, 9.457513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.086, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.848966, "fair_value": 10.310117, "relative_strength": -32.802595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.208465, "energy": 41.399947, "activity_lines": [ 9.020113, 9.068851, 9.107575, 9.404636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.922, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.785033, "fair_value": 10.288173, "relative_strength": -32.443448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.567093, "energy": 40.413558, "activity_lines": [ 8.993863, 9.044524, 9.072008, 9.344832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.082, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.729266, "fair_value": 10.259968, "relative_strength": -29.117843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.05944, "energy": 33.394259, "activity_lines": [ 9.025898, 9.047395, 9.062313, 9.299475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.602, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.681833, "fair_value": 10.23855, "relative_strength": -25.299893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.298105, "energy": 7.044099, "activity_lines": [ 9.220399, 9.14019, 9.108727, 9.291264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.06, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 9.644666, "fair_value": 10.217216, "relative_strength": -20.780723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 20.043614, "energy": 27.137236, "activity_lines": [ 9.5256, 9.30593, 9.201537, 9.315662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.14, "volume": 580, "typical_volume": 86.05, "trend": 9.603166, "fair_value": 10.198486, "relative_strength": -21.579269, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.29742, "energy": 58.554753, "activity_lines": [ 9.7888, 9.475704, 9.298251, 9.347619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }