{ "ticker": { "uuid": "645ebe72-2869-45f3-9c2d-77ac092f3141", "symbol": "NXRT", "name": "Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.427, "architecture_energy": 56.384, "architecture_maturity": 21.228, "architecture_confidence": 73.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.07, "rotation_up": 9.39, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 42.23, "rotation_down": 72.59, "downward_expansion": 80.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.052667, 26.776013, 27.267954, 27.133779 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.53, "trend_reference": 27.315128, "distance_from_trend": -0.065353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.218234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.778534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126619, "excess_performance": -0.252244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182209, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1809356, "relative_activity": 1.641844, "balance": 0.500434, "dry_up": 1.171113, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065197, "annualized_volatility": 0.303385, "from_high_reference": -0.212167, "from_low_reference": 0.093883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.315128, "fair_value_reference": 31.218234, "structural_low": 23.338884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022761, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.036586, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.098287, "worst_return": -0.109375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064699, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.151571, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.242707, "worst_return": -0.229221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.17773, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.219847, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.437771, "worst_return": -0.209129, 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"relative_strength": -14.631867, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.554522, "energy": 7.371265, "activity_lines": [ 27.505333, 27.815322, 27.574894, 27.446315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.07, "volume": 949235, "typical_volume": 1079487.8, "trend": 27.52428, "fair_value": 31.304166, "relative_strength": -15.237974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.7441, "energy": 27.364513, "activity_lines": [ 26.980667, 27.462459, 27.488981, 27.34871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.11, "volume": 1379654, "typical_volume": 1097879.5, "trend": 27.447153, "fair_value": 31.259319, "relative_strength": -15.577296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.249511, "energy": 41.159789, "activity_lines": [ 26.529333, 27.14409, 27.408153, 27.257466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.53, "volume": 1809356, "typical_volume": 1102027.05, "trend": 27.315128, "fair_value": 31.218234, "relative_strength": -19.778534, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.42654, "energy": 56.383568, "activity_lines": [ 26.052667, 26.776013, 27.267954, 27.133779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }