{ "ticker": { "uuid": "645fb8af-d0f5-49a8-9fb6-22bf2edc96ab", "symbol": "SXQG", "name": "EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST ETC 6 MERIDIAN QUALITY GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.376, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.268, "architecture_energy": 63.414, "architecture_maturity": 18.545, "architecture_confidence": 68.64, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.92, "rotation_up": 65.14, "upward_expansion": 86.16, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 16.55, "downward_expansion": 15.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.44754, 32.165031, 31.972413, 31.754784 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.44, "trend_reference": 31.642253, "distance_from_trend": 0.056815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.133933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.778875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047619, "excess_performance": -0.078006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036895, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047619, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34942, "relative_activity": 2.054397, "balance": 0.562392, "dry_up": 0.937507, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023327, "annualized_volatility": 0.151392, "from_high_reference": -0.014264, "from_low_reference": 0.149141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.642253, "fair_value_reference": 30.133933, "structural_low": 29.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015974, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001222, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.117383, "worst_return": -0.116399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04751, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129459, "worst_return": -0.015599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07515, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.213938, "worst_return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.2498, "volume": 49466, "typical_volume": 16396.5, "trend": 31.74239, "fair_value": 29.928464, "relative_strength": -10.236267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.830478, "energy": 13.150097, "activity_lines": [ 31.893313, 31.891447, 31.650788, 31.602195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.9462, "volume": 9310, "typical_volume": 16346.4, "trend": 31.707263, "fair_value": 29.975257, "relative_strength": -9.358644, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.874974, "energy": 21.055629, "activity_lines": [ 31.962533, 31.903509, 31.700991, 31.615344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.4279, "volume": 15779, "typical_volume": 16929.5, "trend": 31.642527, "fair_value": 30.019791, "relative_strength": -9.953076, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.03953, "energy": 15.915182, "activity_lines": [ 31.83598, 31.814998, 31.701994, 31.59732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.2718, "volume": 3751, "typical_volume": 15959.95, "trend": 31.628587, "fair_value": 30.073003, "relative_strength": -8.207317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.272849, "energy": 38.343933, "activity_lines": [ 31.984967, 31.885776, 31.785, 31.637918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.44, "volume": 34942, "typical_volume": 17008.4, "trend": 31.642253, "fair_value": 30.133933, "relative_strength": -7.778875, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.267892, "energy": 63.414406, "activity_lines": [ 32.44754, 32.165031, 31.972413, 31.754784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }