{ "ticker": { "uuid": "645fd028-2bc3-4c50-bc51-79eef68d0880", "symbol": "PRE", "name": "Pensana Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.22, "architecture_energy": 56.897, "architecture_maturity": 17.355, "architecture_confidence": 87.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 40.97, "rotation_down": 65.49, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.704667, 0.736636, 0.82001, 0.866099 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.884, "trend_reference": 0.9227, "distance_from_trend": -0.041942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.526221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.679902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.978657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08866, "excess_performance": -0.139895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.679902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186445, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4852412, "relative_activity": 2.077788, "balance": 0.562166, "dry_up": 1.616364, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139993, "annualized_volatility": 0.860654, "from_high_reference": -0.520867, "from_low_reference": 0.61727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9227, "fair_value_reference": 0.526221, "structural_low": 0.5466, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.004246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006759, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.632653, "worst_return": -0.337148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01375, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.020928, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.695271, "worst_return": -0.387339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030743, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.090872, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.916129, "worst_return": -0.36345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.68, "volume": 3535453, "typical_volume": 2212616.95, "trend": 0.942967, "fair_value": 0.517708, "relative_strength": -36.631327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.583273, "energy": 78.621959, "activity_lines": [ 0.754733, 0.813564, 0.879829, 0.914402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.586, "volume": 2877351, "typical_volume": 2173882.8, "trend": 0.9329, "fair_value": 0.519856, "relative_strength": -45.712997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.665285, "energy": 88.763646, "activity_lines": [ 0.691, 0.762491, 0.84879, 0.891372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 3834036, "typical_volume": 2213458.4, "trend": 0.922833, "fair_value": 0.521981, "relative_strength": -46.682497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.754255, "energy": 91.659494, "activity_lines": [ 0.6382, 0.717855, 0.819048, 0.868604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.884, "volume": 4852412, "typical_volume": 2335373.55, "trend": 0.9227, "fair_value": 0.526221, "relative_strength": -18.978657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.21999, "energy": 56.89696, "activity_lines": [ 0.704667, 0.736636, 0.82001, 0.866099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }