{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64643368-7116-46ed-8fe0-d2ba25bee776", "symbol": "KAPR", "name": "Innovator U.S. Small Cap Power Buffer ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.887, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.178, "architecture_energy": 69.77, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.321, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.35, "rotation_up": 61.0, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 62.1, "rotation_down": 28.83, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.877293, 39.746258, 39.32642, 38.655895 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.2529, "trend_reference": 37.737953, "distance_from_trend": 0.066642, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.536517, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237161, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.134476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127532, "excess_performance": 0.001907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.42617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71991, "relative_activity": 0.684367, "balance": 2.42617, "dry_up": 0.324961, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01218, "annualized_volatility": 0.062054, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.227223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.737953, "fair_value_reference": 32.536517, "structural_low": 35.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012202, "positive_rate": 0.702703, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.008188, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.074095, "worst_return": -0.053779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.03345, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.020012, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.085126, "worst_return": -0.077377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04371, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.022516, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.127532, "worst_return": -0.115517, "sufficient": true }, { 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66.785256, "energy": 64.937348, "activity_lines": [ 39.675607, 39.540251, 39.031667, 38.335449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.727, "volume": 18316, "typical_volume": 105007.95, "trend": 37.58102, "fair_value": 32.456928, "relative_strength": 0.996189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.872774, "energy": 64.146418, "activity_lines": [ 39.692193, 39.603918, 39.163994, 38.483515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.2529, "volume": 71991, "typical_volume": 105193.55, "trend": 37.737953, "fair_value": 32.536517, "relative_strength": -1.134476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.178115, "energy": 69.769887, "activity_lines": [ 39.877293, 39.746258, 39.32642, 38.655895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }