{ "ticker": { "uuid": "646c5069-5329-4940-9acc-fbaf30f95e64", "symbol": "XOP", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.612, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.933, "architecture_energy": 40.033, "architecture_maturity": 10.43, "architecture_confidence": 62.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.32, "rotation_up": 65.44, "upward_expansion": 73.89, "deceleration": 65.1, "rotation_down": 11.32, "downward_expansion": 5.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 170.845333, 166.177283, 165.764173, 165.544076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 166.4, "trend_reference": 161.867727, "distance_from_trend": 0.028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.990119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.723853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141141, "excess_performance": 0.015516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09183, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15482397, "relative_activity": 0.826633, "balance": 1.09183, "dry_up": 0.841501, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06013, "annualized_volatility": 0.322758, "from_high_reference": -0.125867, "from_low_reference": 0.394986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.867727, "fair_value_reference": 136.990119, "structural_low": 141.944674, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.003754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011187, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.267839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008491, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.045018, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.330258, "worst_return": -0.126021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079581, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.308347, "worst_return": -0.214479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 20572095.15, "trend": 158.918896, "fair_value": 136.545494, "relative_strength": 10.882245, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.415364, "energy": 26.403892, "activity_lines": [ 166.042667, 163.011582, 164.947866, 163.974387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 177.4, "volume": 16726155, "typical_volume": 19370210.2, "trend": 160.550916, "fair_value": 136.81678, "relative_strength": 11.388597, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.653734, "energy": 39.898831, "activity_lines": [ 171.034667, 165.651493, 165.904086, 165.166716 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 166.4, "volume": 15482397, "typical_volume": 18729473.45, "trend": 161.867727, "fair_value": 136.990119, "relative_strength": 0.723853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.932746, "energy": 40.032951, "activity_lines": [ 170.845333, 166.177283, 165.764173, 165.544076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }