{ "ticker": { "uuid": "646c50b9-3c50-43c8-902b-3b03c3ecb240", "symbol": "STG", "name": "Strip Tinning Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.329, "architecture_energy": 10.666, "architecture_maturity": 55.92, "architecture_confidence": 59.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.28, "rotation_up": 34.76, "upward_expansion": 19.06, "deceleration": 39.99, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 53.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.198333, 0.190364, 0.192381, 0.196118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.225, "trend_reference": 0.203, "distance_from_trend": 0.108374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.332051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.263443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.051235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17528, "relative_activity": 0.210813, "balance": 1.217385, "dry_up": 0.279861, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111723, "annualized_volatility": 0.515697, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.323529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.203, "fair_value_reference": 0.332051, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 7.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.229167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012005, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.671233, "worst_return": -0.327273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.352941, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.222572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.435294, "worst_return": -0.514286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.540809, "energy": 39.095588, "activity_lines": [ 0.179333, 0.183, 0.19281, 0.199022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.185, "volume": 11721, "typical_volume": 95652.6, "trend": 0.207167, "fair_value": 0.338654, "relative_strength": -22.930264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.325203, "energy": 33.139701, "activity_lines": [ 0.181, 0.182545, 0.191595, 0.197473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.185, "volume": 28454, "typical_volume": 94578.05, "trend": 0.205333, "fair_value": 0.336474, "relative_strength": -23.060838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.353461, "energy": 23.872351, "activity_lines": [ 0.183, 0.182636, 0.1905, 0.196043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.185, "volume": 35373, "typical_volume": 88293.25, "trend": 0.2035, "fair_value": 0.334135, "relative_strength": -23.116434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.920671, "energy": 19.424865, "activity_lines": [ 0.184333, 0.182818, 0.189524, 0.194731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.225, "volume": 17528, "typical_volume": 83144.85, "trend": 0.203, "fair_value": 0.332051, "relative_strength": -6.263443, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.328816, "energy": 10.665912, "activity_lines": [ 0.198333, 0.190364, 0.192381, 0.196118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }