{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64709ad6-28a4-41f7-9424-50f2f7385f0b", "symbol": "SVRN", "name": "OceanPal Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.019, "architecture_energy": 54.228, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.861, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.8, "rotation_up": 12.38, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 40.24, "rotation_down": 69.75, "downward_expansion": 87.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.767667, 7.570364, 8.282533, 8.580301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 10.028433, "distance_from_trend": -0.376772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 577.498228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.91668, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.550748, "excess_performance": -0.738201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.376772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.699167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255792, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.550748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86420, "relative_activity": 0.050149, "balance": 0.771088, "dry_up": 0.029952, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.435509, "annualized_volatility": 1.826263, "from_high_reference": -0.891295, "from_low_reference": 1.003205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.028433, "fair_value_reference": 577.498228, "structural_low": 3.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.08982, "positive_rate": 0.275862, "directional_follow_through": 0.724138, "median_excess_return": -0.07543, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 1.702338, "worst_return": -0.578936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.268846, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.326919, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.298851, "worst_return": -0.631159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.366525, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.468201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.680814, "worst_return": -0.796603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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8.481636, 8.691667, 9.172658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.46, "volume": 46558, "typical_volume": 6996400.75, "trend": 10.666767, "fair_value": 582.938933, "relative_strength": -69.086062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.830586, "energy": 50.943586, "activity_lines": [ 7.237333, 7.988455, 8.495738, 8.865254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 86420, "typical_volume": 1723274.3, "trend": 10.028433, "fair_value": 577.498228, "relative_strength": -69.91668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.019453, "energy": 54.228391, "activity_lines": [ 6.767667, 7.570364, 8.282533, 8.580301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }