{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64775012-faad-4d41-b601-a031a90dd4fe", "symbol": "8074", "name": "Aurona Industries, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.347, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.923, "architecture_energy": 67.556, "architecture_maturity": 16.246, "architecture_confidence": 86.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.44, "rotation_up": 9.85, "upward_expansion": 14.97, "deceleration": 37.79, "rotation_down": 72.75, "downward_expansion": 90.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.046668, 57.652728, 64.01001, 64.944886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.700001, "trend_reference": 65.028106, "distance_from_trend": -0.128069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.86032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.837311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.408787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040453, "excess_performance": -0.481825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128069, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.837311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.966938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.496557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3570108, "relative_activity": 0.213202, "balance": 0.544218, "dry_up": 0.239218, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166192, "annualized_volatility": 0.59519, "from_high_reference": -0.404144, "from_low_reference": 1.157176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.028106, "fair_value_reference": 30.86032, "structural_low": 44.650002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032501, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.063981, "worst_return": -0.03653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005249, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.010101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012626, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03937, "worst_return": -0.033668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.229636, "activity_lines": [ 63.046667, 67.034546, 69.361548, 67.853684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.700001, "volume": 5471449, "typical_volume": 18296380.8, "trend": 64.935334, "fair_value": 30.171874, "relative_strength": -17.144717, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.654382, "energy": 46.100319, "activity_lines": [ 59.400001, 64.245455, 68.06352, 67.219067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.5, "volume": 3763280, "typical_volume": 17853868.45, "trend": 64.921975, "fair_value": 30.378218, "relative_strength": -24.294146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.189946, "energy": 60.099999, "activity_lines": [ 55.3, 60.89091, 66.311865, 66.223239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.400002, "volume": 3218200, "typical_volume": 17017717.15, "trend": 64.992504, "fair_value": 30.608113, "relative_strength": -20.420464, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.303079, "energy": 62.860544, "activity_lines": [ 53.586668, 58.778183, 64.987188, 65.479886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 56.700001, "volume": 3570108, "typical_volume": 16745203.1, "trend": 65.028106, "fair_value": 30.86032, "relative_strength": -18.408787, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.923379, "energy": 67.556379, "activity_lines": [ 54.046668, 57.652728, 64.01001, 64.944886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }