{ "ticker": { "uuid": "647885bd-9757-4f81-9174-220c8e1e6722", "symbol": "XMKO", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Korea UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.279, "architecture_energy": 24.081, "architecture_maturity": 65.359, "architecture_confidence": 72.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.47, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 42.52, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 47.22, "downward_expansion": 36.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.97, 194.13109, 197.245523, 187.419096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 182.139999, "trend_reference": 172.727666, "distance_from_trend": 0.054492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.120705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.977189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.006146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.369062, "excess_performance": 0.19817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054492, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.977189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.550626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.579923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.369062, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6785, "relative_activity": 0.773735, "balance": 0.574015, "dry_up": 2.831774, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113868, "annualized_volatility": 0.543283, "from_high_reference": -0.239022, "from_low_reference": 1.448118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.727666, "fair_value_reference": 92.120705, "structural_low": 126.099998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001533, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0098, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.271124, "worst_return": -0.067971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012989, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.580252, "worst_return": -0.124759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057327, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085691, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074659, "worst_return": -0.070333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 90.739744, "relative_strength": 23.599004, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.85281, "energy": 26.731792, "activity_lines": [ 194.11, 204.979817, 198.79738, 186.300967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.330002, "volume": 29759, "typical_volume": 8482.95, "trend": 170.634999, "fair_value": 91.399231, "relative_strength": 14.484187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.931781, "energy": 21.613907, "activity_lines": [ 185.164001, 198.573818, 197.731476, 186.676838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 182.139999, "volume": 6785, "typical_volume": 8769.15, "trend": 172.727666, "fair_value": 92.120705, "relative_strength": 15.006146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.278762, "energy": 24.080714, "activity_lines": [ 181.97, 194.13109, 197.245523, 187.419096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }