{ "ticker": { "uuid": "647956d7-43d4-439f-b249-5f8d705a3a2a", "symbol": "CVAR", "name": "CULTIVAR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.872, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 65.139, "architecture_energy": 79.878, "architecture_maturity": 11.004, "architecture_confidence": 63.615, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.1, "rotation_up": 83.06, "upward_expansion": 69.01, "deceleration": 18.02, "rotation_down": 16.26, "downward_expansion": 25.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.084407, 29.618267, 29.208256, 29.09426 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.9164, "trend_reference": 29.096283, "distance_from_trend": 0.062555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.708805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202561, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.47911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043063, "excess_performance": -0.082561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04451, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043063, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3754, "relative_activity": 0.405836, "balance": 0.819104, "dry_up": 0.927427, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019227, "annualized_volatility": 0.127847, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.187509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.096283, "fair_value_reference": 25.708805, "structural_low": 27.89, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009973, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.035465, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.020569, "worst_return": -0.03855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001387, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071511, "worst_return": -0.098203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055198, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072038, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.002938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -7.546517, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.84685, "energy": 20.276939, "activity_lines": [ 28.960907, 28.822111, 28.735432, 28.836631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.4573, "volume": 11639, "typical_volume": 8992.85, "trend": 28.958157, "fair_value": 25.579252, "relative_strength": -4.567375, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.398518, "energy": 42.501051, "activity_lines": [ 29.158413, 28.954782, 28.80271, 28.870959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.3646, "volume": 12521, "typical_volume": 9523.9, "trend": 28.982977, "fair_value": 25.615474, "relative_strength": -4.198017, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.417654, "energy": 50.088313, "activity_lines": [ 29.283927, 29.057122, 28.865946, 28.897181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.1642, "volume": 6401, "typical_volume": 9527.4, "trend": 29.042897, "fair_value": 25.659275, "relative_strength": -2.589853, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.70967, "energy": 68.018744, "activity_lines": [ 29.60194, 29.282715, 29.0055, 28.973389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.9164, "volume": 3754, "typical_volume": 9250.05, "trend": 29.096283, "fair_value": 25.708805, "relative_strength": -3.47911, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.139164, "energy": 79.877675, "activity_lines": [ 30.084407, 29.618267, 29.208256, 29.09426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }