{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64806a27-e3a5-4367-87c4-7b379936899c", "symbol": "002328", "name": "Shanghai Xinpeng Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.677, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.518, "architecture_energy": 65.055, "architecture_maturity": 18.642, "architecture_confidence": 62.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.78, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 23.32, "deceleration": 43.92, "rotation_down": 69.47, "downward_expansion": 64.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.76, 7.027636, 8.006295, 8.151631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.21, "trend_reference": 8.083135, "distance_from_trend": -0.108019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.970118, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.896055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04985, "excess_performance": 0.04245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.690942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04985, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187159733, "relative_activity": 0.749468, "balance": 0.616964, "dry_up": 0.651182, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119282, "annualized_volatility": 0.697071, "from_high_reference": -0.462706, "from_low_reference": 0.247931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.083135, "fair_value_reference": 5.970118, "structural_low": 5.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033328, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051485, "worst_return": -0.068266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038267, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109988, "worst_return": -0.03442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119564, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.114966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192353, "worst_return": 0.036232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000716, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 7.18, 7.70126, 8.567673, 8.421519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.29, "volume": 165315059, "typical_volume": 248519313.35, "trend": 8.065525, "fair_value": 5.954745, "relative_strength": -14.004739, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.436109, "energy": 69.850703, "activity_lines": [ 6.821333, 7.340541, 8.341465, 8.306215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.52, "volume": 122541256, "typical_volume": 248140346.3, "trend": 8.060524, "fair_value": 5.9601, "relative_strength": -9.456229, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.373963, "energy": 72.192888, "activity_lines": [ 6.648667, 7.089455, 8.140007, 8.206504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.21, "volume": 187159733, "typical_volume": 249723438.05, "trend": 8.083135, "fair_value": 5.970118, "relative_strength": -4.896055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.517928, "energy": 65.054537, "activity_lines": [ 6.76, 7.027636, 8.006295, 8.151631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }