{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6480bf44-2317-40a4-8dcb-3b6e0f8ed5ef", "symbol": "SIYSIL", "name": "Siyaram Silk Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.768, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.697, "architecture_energy": 26.894, "architecture_maturity": 53.102, "architecture_confidence": 83.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.63, "rotation_up": 33.98, "upward_expansion": 65.72, "deceleration": 84.99, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 15.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 617.113493, 622.406451, 608.022408, 587.058518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 625.349976, "trend_reference": 567.109677, "distance_from_trend": 0.102697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 588.393043, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06281, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.277371, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123372, "excess_performance": 0.167081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06281, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123372, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.912676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 287547, "relative_activity": 0.823632, "balance": 1.912676, "dry_up": 0.671768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059027, "annualized_volatility": 0.269616, "from_high_reference": -0.250123, "from_low_reference": 0.452852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 567.109677, "fair_value_reference": 588.393043, "structural_low": 430.429111, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004478, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.1465, "worst_return": -0.091789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065879, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013443, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.183572, "worst_return": -0.067764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02796, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.099377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.544874, "worst_return": -0.12277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198295, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.653416, "energy": 43.00614, "activity_lines": [ 625.286336, 623.88264, 600.393385, 580.885636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 602.299988, "volume": 155731, "typical_volume": 349064.6, "trend": 565.523424, "fair_value": 587.724914, "relative_strength": 0.384611, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.508802, "energy": 29.656768, "activity_lines": [ 616.099638, 621.16591, 603.395337, 583.19874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 625.349976, "volume": 287547, "typical_volume": 349120.6, "trend": 567.109677, "fair_value": 588.393043, "relative_strength": 3.277371, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.697075, "energy": 26.894489, "activity_lines": [ 617.113493, 622.406451, 608.022408, 587.058518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }