{ "ticker": { "uuid": "648848c5-6d80-4024-ae01-c86ab3d8ecdf", "symbol": "GJAJ", "name": "Groupe JAJ", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.528, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.705, "architecture_energy": 46.853, "architecture_maturity": 22.689, "architecture_confidence": 89.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.38, "rotation_up": 68.48, "upward_expansion": 36.47, "deceleration": 43.22, "rotation_down": 16.69, "downward_expansion": 25.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.152, 1.093091, 1.076, 1.097312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.29, "trend_reference": 1.133667, "distance_from_trend": 0.137901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.209359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.110044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04878, "excess_performance": -0.004531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0311, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.69589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232, "relative_activity": 0.260689, "balance": 1.69589, "dry_up": 1.164391, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050984, "annualized_volatility": 0.339274, "from_high_reference": -0.14, "from_low_reference": 0.441341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.133667, "fair_value_reference": 1.209359, "structural_low": 0.895, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070175, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127273, "worst_return": -0.105882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076023, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018182, "worst_return": -0.123529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005882, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111786, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054545, "worst_return": -0.152047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.147059, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.45, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 5854.75, "trend": 1.538333, "fair_value": 1.532436, "relative_strength": -9.135572, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.402968, "energy": 24.725761, "activity_lines": [ 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-13.979903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.983919, "energy": 47.489491, "activity_lines": [ 1.012667, 1.021818, 1.060952, 1.099656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.04, "volume": 1781, "typical_volume": 805.2, "trend": 1.139667, "fair_value": 1.214615, "relative_strength": -13.679122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.34791, "energy": 41.156324, "activity_lines": [ 1.022, 1.023091, 1.055, 1.092559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.05, "volume": 2122, "typical_volume": 911.3, "trend": 1.136, "fair_value": 1.212372, "relative_strength": -12.920235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.78576, "energy": 33.691949, "activity_lines": [ 1.030667, 1.026727, 1.050857, 1.086774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 911.3, "trend": 1.130667, "fair_value": 1.210385, "relative_strength": -6.719784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.668269, "energy": 16.617203, "activity_lines": [ 1.069333, 1.047091, 1.056095, 1.087032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.29, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 889.95, "trend": 1.133667, "fair_value": 1.209359, "relative_strength": 3.110044, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.704573, "energy": 46.853258, "activity_lines": [ 1.152, 1.093091, 1.076, 1.097312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }