{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6489d33b-e467-4f1c-882c-0d778c7d382b", "symbol": "300248", "name": "Newcapec Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.932, "architecture_energy": 27.654, "architecture_maturity": 99.626, "architecture_confidence": 92.221, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.98, "rotation_up": 30.39, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 34.46, "downward_expansion": 69.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.412667, 8.156857, 8.518015, 9.179326 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 10.252812, "distance_from_trend": -0.057819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.411042, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.469844, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247077, "excess_performance": -0.254477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02885, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183141, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096523, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163926675, "relative_activity": 3.887436, "balance": 1.096523, "dry_up": 1.763213, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081751, "annualized_volatility": 0.427954, "from_high_reference": -0.39625, "from_low_reference": 0.366337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.252812, "fair_value_reference": 10.411042, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.024722, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.02134, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.470968, "worst_return": -0.156663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.068928, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037758, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.432137, "worst_return": -0.264368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075078, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016645, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.206084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.919238, "energy": 68.431907, "activity_lines": [ 7.582, 7.842226, 8.553723, 9.367818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.23, "volume": 47635072, "typical_volume": 35598384.75, "trend": 10.344479, "fair_value": 10.407829, "relative_strength": -28.795021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.70439, "energy": 62.52076, "activity_lines": [ 7.778, 7.855875, 8.459226, 9.223486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 163926675, "typical_volume": 42168328.75, "trend": 10.252812, "fair_value": 10.411042, "relative_strength": -19.469844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.932215, "energy": 27.653597, "activity_lines": [ 8.412667, 8.156857, 8.518015, 9.179326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }