{ "ticker": { "uuid": "648bb3dd-5e7d-4ce7-bd29-285532f8d919", "symbol": "ALPM", "name": "Precia S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.616, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.237, "architecture_energy": 40.48, "architecture_maturity": 7.806, "architecture_confidence": 58.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.57, "rotation_up": 51.86, "upward_expansion": 41.98, "deceleration": 36.68, "rotation_down": 27.24, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.966666, 25.59477, 25.468279, 25.409862 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.6, "trend_reference": 25.73249, "distance_from_trend": 0.072574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.195956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.672958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010753, "excess_performance": -0.064064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021136, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057117, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24281, "relative_activity": 1.94592, "balance": 0.93148, "dry_up": 1.280304, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036714, "annualized_volatility": 0.270843, "from_high_reference": -0.095082, "from_low_reference": 0.194805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.73249, "fair_value_reference": 28.195956, "structural_low": 23.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007848, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009203, "worst_return": 0.006494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.019012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133117, "worst_return": -0.095092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.091154, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.126317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048701, "worst_return": -0.133606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.454545, "energy": 23.31592, "activity_lines": [ 25.180824, 25.446639, 25.182439, 25.485719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.0, "volume": 5835, "typical_volume": 11169.85, "trend": 25.919157, "fair_value": 28.231254, "relative_strength": -10.202084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.084559, "energy": 24.986698, "activity_lines": [ 25.113745, 25.35544, 25.167322, 25.419967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.1, "volume": 5555, "typical_volume": 11305.05, "trend": 25.83249, "fair_value": 28.219188, "relative_strength": -9.544524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.816334, "energy": 21.483485, "activity_lines": [ 25.082603, 25.26535, 25.17268, 25.367118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 25469, "typical_volume": 11416.0, "trend": 25.775824, "fair_value": 28.205304, "relative_strength": -8.85042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.551163, "energy": 20.383214, "activity_lines": [ 25.146666, 25.230076, 25.208515, 25.332764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.1, "volume": 8597, "typical_volume": 11570.75, "trend": 25.729157, "fair_value": 28.188278, "relative_strength": -10.567163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.487306, "energy": 20.888317, "activity_lines": [ 25.126666, 25.173256, 25.221016, 25.289162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.6, "volume": 24281, "typical_volume": 12477.9, "trend": 25.73249, "fair_value": 28.195956, "relative_strength": -3.672958, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.237402, "energy": 40.479907, "activity_lines": [ 25.966666, 25.59477, 25.468279, 25.409862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }