{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6492824e-8a25-4c7d-90c1-e4fdfd139ced", "symbol": "BWY", "name": "Bellway p.l.c.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.377, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.408, "architecture_energy": 17.115, "architecture_maturity": 26.902, "architecture_confidence": 51.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.18, "rotation_up": 37.13, "upward_expansion": 31.23, "deceleration": 49.64, "rotation_down": 17.07, "downward_expansion": 44.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2021.4, 1978.763636, 1944.149272, 2012.448817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2124.0, "trend_reference": 2167.860498, "distance_from_trend": -0.020232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2498.752835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.665277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217871, "excess_performance": -0.284149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063058, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.268093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1614074, "relative_activity": 0.597308, "balance": 2.268093, "dry_up": 0.839875, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058355, "annualized_volatility": 0.497533, "from_high_reference": -0.264961, "from_low_reference": 0.219288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2167.860498, "fair_value_reference": 2498.752835, "structural_low": 1742.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.030835, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.034371, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.113319, "worst_return": -0.158273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016484, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038227, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.283376, "worst_return": -0.268285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044136, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.064908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304531, "worst_return": 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2047.464808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1979.0, "volume": 2378008, "typical_volume": 2836197.35, "trend": 2211.504801, "fair_value": 2500.878937, "relative_strength": -22.295097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.696763, "energy": 17.365076, "activity_lines": [ 1957.4, 1925.2, 1921.736702, 2031.022193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1988.0, "volume": 2139430, "typical_volume": 2792576.95, "trend": 2188.382528, "fair_value": 2499.418412, "relative_strength": -22.265165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.384684, "energy": 15.25306, "activity_lines": [ 1965.466667, 1940.727273, 1925.762708, 2016.602528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2124.0, "volume": 1614074, "typical_volume": 2702248.0, "trend": 2167.860498, "fair_value": 2498.752835, "relative_strength": -16.665277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.408396, "energy": 17.114608, "activity_lines": [ 2021.4, 1978.763636, 1944.149272, 2012.448817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }