{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6493e9b7-da2e-4cc5-a151-bf75b30d6794", "symbol": "PSSA3", "name": "Porto Seguro S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.124, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.643, "architecture_energy": 29.913, "architecture_maturity": 30.01, "architecture_confidence": 55.446, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.48, "rotation_up": 46.5, "upward_expansion": 67.13, "deceleration": 60.75, "rotation_down": 23.57, "downward_expansion": 17.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.365999, 53.415815, 52.082901, 51.366503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.419998, "trend_reference": 50.39071, "distance_from_trend": 0.000581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.563416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.492564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005377, "excess_performance": 0.051672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8949800, "relative_activity": 1.459391, "balance": 0.739796, "dry_up": 1.08979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051609, "annualized_volatility": 0.277656, "from_high_reference": -0.092349, "from_low_reference": 0.163858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.39071, "fair_value_reference": 37.563416, "structural_low": 45.008221, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.002412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003787, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.191261, "worst_return": -0.121288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019264, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.034738, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.307681, "worst_return": -0.171415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113651, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.148847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.360153, "worst_return": -0.245796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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73.149027, "energy": 76.782951, "activity_lines": [ 53.692155, 51.774522, 50.916674, 50.348546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.139999, "volume": 5757800, "typical_volume": 6476230.0, "trend": 49.690844, "fair_value": 37.009708, "relative_strength": 6.671621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.677193, "energy": 79.620675, "activity_lines": [ 54.444288, 52.586139, 51.3796, 50.722648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.779999, "volume": 5724700, "typical_volume": 6324570.0, "trend": 49.982483, "fair_value": 37.199012, "relative_strength": 6.121436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.961461, "energy": 77.528392, "activity_lines": [ 54.733999, 53.25692, 51.787803, 51.050981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.7, "volume": 6300500, "typical_volume": 6242850.0, "trend": 50.246918, "fair_value": 37.39659, "relative_strength": 4.068619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.542959, "energy": 71.697118, "activity_lines": [ 54.811333, 53.780037, 52.15532, 51.355337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.419998, "volume": 8949800, "typical_volume": 6132560.0, "trend": 50.39071, "fair_value": 37.563416, "relative_strength": -0.492564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.643186, "energy": 29.913213, "activity_lines": [ 53.365999, 53.415815, 52.082901, 51.366503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }