{ "ticker": { "uuid": "649722e2-c721-4fa8-a8b2-f7b9973c03c4", "symbol": "600559", "name": "Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.881, "architecture_energy": 28.967, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.67, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.95, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 34.04, "downward_expansion": 66.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.936667, 11.773965, 12.131318, 12.666989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 13.529611, "distance_from_trend": -0.1101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.816325, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.202654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.253565, "excess_performance": -0.210361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1101, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054714, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.786463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71819634, "relative_activity": 1.493201, "balance": 0.786463, "dry_up": 1.665807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067466, "annualized_volatility": 0.244014, "from_high_reference": -0.365648, "from_low_reference": 0.11792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.529611, "fair_value_reference": 17.816325, "structural_low": 10.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.015045, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02241, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.272768, "worst_return": -0.148754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.055395, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.021449, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.432124, "worst_return": -0.176761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038271, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.077141, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.106698, "worst_return": -0.290482, "sufficient": true 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13.370584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.2, "volume": 56129612, "typical_volume": 40897961.8, "trend": 14.092944, "fair_value": 18.105252, "relative_strength": -28.311283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.61995, "energy": 83.294181, "activity_lines": [ 11.440161, 11.819454, 12.49181, 13.173147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.7, "volume": 79503448, "typical_volume": 43172453.7, "trend": 13.945611, "fair_value": 18.031705, "relative_strength": -19.819818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.232419, "energy": 63.285213, "activity_lines": [ 11.481356, 11.730291, 12.356913, 13.018763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.35, "volume": 72915186, "typical_volume": 43827842.75, "trend": 13.783944, "fair_value": 17.957853, "relative_strength": -22.556023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.637007, "energy": 62.288323, "activity_lines": [ 11.435333, 11.607868, 12.206826, 12.851305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.55, "volume": 96247987, "typical_volume": 46704383.05, "trend": 13.662944, "fair_value": 17.890784, "relative_strength": -14.1342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.674773, "energy": 41.22231, "activity_lines": [ 11.808667, 11.736076, 12.187643, 12.771695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 71819634, "typical_volume": 48097755.4, "trend": 13.529611, "fair_value": 17.816325, "relative_strength": -19.202654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.880664, "energy": 28.96652, "activity_lines": [ 11.936667, 11.773965, 12.131318, 12.666989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }