{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64992999-02c0-4495-b20c-70b1caa830e1", "symbol": "E1XC34", "name": "Exelon Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.324, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.272, "architecture_energy": 18.837, "architecture_maturity": 30.608, "architecture_confidence": 60.928, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.08, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 46.83, "downward_expansion": 37.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 237.75667, 239.262366, 237.238586, 238.615122 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 234.600006, "trend_reference": 239.166031, "distance_from_trend": -0.019091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 215.574219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.802063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002065, "excess_performance": 0.059114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 45.354839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11, "relative_activity": 0.074501, "balance": 45.354839, "dry_up": 2.416187, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02748, "annualized_volatility": 0.211499, "from_high_reference": -0.099305, "from_low_reference": 0.098456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 239.166031, "fair_value_reference": 215.574219, "structural_low": 213.572486, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049657, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.033162, "worst_return": -0.112121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036012, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.133284, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.210887, "worst_return": -0.179285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043199, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006208, "worst_return": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.467639, "energy": 46.211668, "activity_lines": [ 244.030001, 238.651983, 238.405611, 239.125096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 234.479996, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 82.4, "trend": 238.980553, "fair_value": 214.487906, "relative_strength": -8.08228, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.249404, "energy": 24.916926, "activity_lines": [ 241.727333, 238.677488, 237.778264, 238.83554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 239.520004, "volume": 1402, "typical_volume": 149.3, "trend": 239.01883, "fair_value": 214.851837, "relative_strength": -5.799313, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.321402, "energy": 20.564819, "activity_lines": [ 240.995334, 239.4941, 237.686203, 238.870343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 239.520004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 148.25, "trend": 239.057107, "fair_value": 215.238273, "relative_strength": -7.31379, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.893336, "energy": 9.955901, "activity_lines": [ 240.028002, 239.906496, 237.667626, 238.902677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 234.600006, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 147.65, "trend": 239.166031, "fair_value": 215.574219, "relative_strength": -5.802063, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.272172, "energy": 18.836778, "activity_lines": [ 237.75667, 239.262366, 237.238586, 238.615122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }