{ "ticker": { "uuid": "649a0d42-cd68-40a2-9a11-4c7d34d6b197", "symbol": "FEOE", "name": "FIRST EAGLE OVERSEAS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.495, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.697, "architecture_energy": 70.504, "architecture_maturity": 7.541, "architecture_confidence": 78.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.84, "rotation_up": 72.2, "upward_expansion": 89.88, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 13.14, "downward_expansion": 14.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.16, 54.518727, 53.994524, 53.497688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.66, "trend_reference": 52.989833, "distance_from_trend": 0.069262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.542131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.065815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069662, "excess_performance": -0.055963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010658, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.191973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1538866, "relative_activity": 1.255558, "balance": 2.191973, "dry_up": 0.988968, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027184, "annualized_volatility": 0.179498, "from_high_reference": -0.002289, "from_low_reference": 0.335547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.989833, "fair_value_reference": 45.542131, "structural_low": 48.5902, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.431851, "energy": 27.689588, "activity_lines": [ 53.752667, 53.671091, 53.284095, 52.976475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.8, "volume": 1517654, "typical_volume": 1261743.3, "trend": 52.556833, "fair_value": 45.293254, "relative_strength": 0.747849, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.896475, "energy": 28.898009, "activity_lines": [ 53.776, 53.701091, 53.396524, 53.067903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.33, "volume": 773560, "typical_volume": 1207531.35, "trend": 52.7715, "fair_value": 45.411333, "relative_strength": 2.30774, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.324837, "energy": 48.097274, "activity_lines": [ 54.314, 54.001636, 53.643405, 53.246817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.66, "volume": 1538866, "typical_volume": 1225643.55, "trend": 52.989833, "fair_value": 45.542131, "relative_strength": 1.065815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.696605, "energy": 70.504301, "activity_lines": [ 55.16, 54.518727, 53.994524, 53.497688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }