{ "ticker": { "uuid": "649b8c69-d769-4da3-a4f3-d91caa28837a", "symbol": "002342", "name": "Juli Sling Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.906, "architecture_energy": 81.342, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 12.06, "upward_expansion": 20.53, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 68.52, "downward_expansion": 91.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.826, 8.672545, 11.053451, 12.224963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.3, "trend_reference": 13.294944, "distance_from_trend": -0.375703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.32589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.8839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.435374, "excess_performance": -0.442774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.375703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.502775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.137138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.435374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302079236, "relative_activity": 0.485711, "balance": 0.360718, "dry_up": 0.669609, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.263789, "annualized_volatility": 1.186875, "from_high_reference": -0.653981, "from_low_reference": 0.332263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.294944, "fair_value_reference": 6.32589, "structural_low": 6.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.027682, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.008647, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.154614, "worst_return": -0.160804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046005, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.019177, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.20132, "worst_return": -0.118271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062706, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.145456, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.171089, "worst_return": -0.082915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.117755, "energy": 72.774273, "activity_lines": [ 8.596, 9.424924, 12.080197, 12.939063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.31, "volume": 331468126, "typical_volume": 643755993.75, "trend": 13.324944, "fair_value": 6.299516, "relative_strength": -31.290361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.947405, "energy": 79.538531, "activity_lines": [ 7.968, 8.905526, 11.505586, 12.549153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3, "volume": 302079236, "typical_volume": 621932142.6, "trend": 13.294944, "fair_value": 6.32589, "relative_strength": -25.8839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.906152, "energy": 81.342304, "activity_lines": [ 7.826, 8.672545, 11.053451, 12.224963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }