{ "ticker": { "uuid": "649d5133-f0dd-45ff-b0b4-52301a904245", "symbol": "NESF", "name": "NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.828, "architecture_energy": 75.079, "architecture_maturity": 13.818, "architecture_confidence": 70.395, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 71.13, "upward_expansion": 87.44, "deceleration": 47.71, "rotation_down": 9.65, "downward_expansion": 16.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.498167, 0.487482, 0.472787, 0.466554 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.508, "trend_reference": 0.462778, "distance_from_trend": 0.097719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.556851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.097583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036885, "excess_performance": -0.01435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097719, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.04305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5795865, "relative_activity": 0.812335, "balance": 3.04305, "dry_up": 1.106214, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049029, "annualized_volatility": 0.277657, "from_high_reference": -0.250179, "from_low_reference": 0.238713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.462778, "fair_value_reference": 0.556851, "structural_low": 0.410103, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009764, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.007542, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.065314, "worst_return": -0.091602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018324, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008922, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.176136, "worst_return": -0.241592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017047, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.07916, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.186478, "worst_return": -0.159636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.508, "volume": 5795865, "typical_volume": 7134823.1, "trend": 0.462778, "fair_value": 0.556851, "relative_strength": -5.097583, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.828276, "energy": 75.079119, "activity_lines": [ 0.498167, 0.487482, 0.472787, 0.466554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }