{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64a04df7-94a2-4b58-9245-6c00ad039fee", "symbol": "MEDI", "name": "Medistim ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.489, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.533, "architecture_energy": 16.703, "architecture_maturity": 15.174, "architecture_confidence": 76.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.75, "rotation_up": 31.93, "upward_expansion": 55.69, "deceleration": 80.19, "rotation_down": 22.61, "downward_expansion": 17.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 226.266667, 226.690909, 226.127235, 222.776949 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 228.0, "trend_reference": 219.507019, "distance_from_trend": 0.038691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 191.058223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193354, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.641478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104163, "excess_performance": -0.020831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017947, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.593728, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48937, "relative_activity": 0.623698, "balance": 1.593728, "dry_up": 0.506983, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046221, "annualized_volatility": 0.307631, "from_high_reference": -0.190785, "from_low_reference": 0.266975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 219.507019, "fair_value_reference": 191.058223, "structural_low": 179.95615, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.028721, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.033562, "regime_survival": 0.263158, "best_return": 0.335038, "worst_return": -0.191147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008969, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.065255, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.45098, "worst_return": -0.275926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073958, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.079743, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.478452, "worst_return": -0.185468, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.040867, "energy": 11.904828, "activity_lines": [ 227.533333, 227.727273, 224.243109, 221.629882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 227.0, "volume": 42371, "typical_volume": 106871.7, "trend": 222.028072, "fair_value": 191.134036, "relative_strength": -9.810034, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.950558, "energy": 15.121334, "activity_lines": [ 227.466667, 227.6, 224.901505, 221.897228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 223.0, "volume": 51452, "typical_volume": 94146.2, "trend": 221.098832, "fair_value": 191.04513, "relative_strength": -13.36689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.405577, "energy": 16.494801, "activity_lines": [ 226.066667, 226.727273, 225.145615, 221.959933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 226.0, "volume": 16357, "typical_volume": 84181.5, "trend": 220.237428, "fair_value": 191.039449, "relative_strength": -12.323134, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.937159, "energy": 15.103563, "activity_lines": [ 225.666667, 226.545455, 225.606016, 222.276138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 228.0, "volume": 48937, "typical_volume": 78462.7, "trend": 219.507019, "fair_value": 191.058223, "relative_strength": -11.641478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.5334, "energy": 16.702759, "activity_lines": [ 226.266667, 226.690909, 226.127235, 222.776949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }