{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64aee3ff-f5db-4f7d-8177-9cd68d881093", "symbol": "PPS", "name": "Praemium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.905, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.907, "architecture_energy": 41.136, "architecture_maturity": 27.828, "architecture_confidence": 53.444, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.02, "rotation_up": 57.95, "upward_expansion": 54.7, "deceleration": 26.26, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.727, 0.711182, 0.703524, 0.701901 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.775, "trend_reference": 0.705922, "distance_from_trend": 0.097855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.614434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.268962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134137, "excess_performance": 0.070431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084952, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.591516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6634603, "relative_activity": 2.109169, "balance": 1.591516, "dry_up": 1.35681, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067742, "annualized_volatility": 0.390339, "from_high_reference": -0.165899, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.705922, "fair_value_reference": 0.614434, "structural_low": 0.625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021661, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.005937, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.185591, "worst_return": -0.350806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.040209, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.394231, "worst_return": -0.475806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111105, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004904, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.355232, "worst_return": -0.45193, 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.604388, "energy": 20.049755, "activity_lines": [ 0.689667, 0.691, 0.692214, 0.696333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.725, "volume": 5880400, "typical_volume": 3194582.35, "trend": 0.70598, "fair_value": 0.613066, "relative_strength": -3.561118, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.791467, "energy": 7.334844, "activity_lines": [ 0.703, 0.696909, 0.695548, 0.697449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.775, "volume": 6634603, "typical_volume": 3145600.7, "trend": 0.705922, "fair_value": 0.614434, "relative_strength": -0.268962, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.907404, "energy": 41.135751, "activity_lines": [ 0.727, 0.711182, 0.703524, 0.701901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }