{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64af8159-2c24-48ae-9e65-df3e798b6281", "symbol": "FIVA", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST INTERNATIONAL VALUE FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.766, "architecture_energy": 62.83, "architecture_maturity": 40.96, "architecture_confidence": 86.519, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.46, "rotation_up": 61.74, "upward_expansion": 83.51, "deceleration": 54.37, "rotation_down": 21.98, "downward_expansion": 10.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.225667, 38.90093, 38.221747, 37.544042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.143, "trend_reference": 36.82742, "distance_from_trend": 0.09003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.517018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.835941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096131, "excess_performance": -0.029494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034358, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038359, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.516306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 544170, "relative_activity": 1.150307, "balance": 1.516306, "dry_up": 0.891057, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026308, "annualized_volatility": 0.171459, "from_high_reference": -0.001815, "from_low_reference": 0.372362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.82742, "fair_value_reference": 27.517018, "structural_low": 32.939328, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011255, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.008592, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.07487, "worst_return": -0.102822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.048745, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00875, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.108969, "worst_return": -0.12789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075766, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.018836, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.164722, "worst_return": -0.108539, "sufficient": true }, { 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38.606132, 38.239571, 37.361016, 36.85936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.39, "volume": 428154, "typical_volume": 570083.8, "trend": 36.310455, "fair_value": 27.175676, "relative_strength": 4.004853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.297424, "energy": 49.397071, "activity_lines": [ 38.54, 38.327147, 37.532823, 37.004688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.54, "volume": 312549, "typical_volume": 520263.5, "trend": 36.47117, "fair_value": 27.28267, "relative_strength": 4.795136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.124597, "energy": 46.779493, "activity_lines": [ 38.541333, 38.419397, 37.713955, 37.14853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.1, "volume": 401239, "typical_volume": 486375.55, "trend": 36.641395, "fair_value": 27.396646, "relative_strength": 4.902463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.309729, "energy": 50.243576, "activity_lines": [ 38.736667, 38.580759, 37.930367, 37.318132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.143, "volume": 544170, "typical_volume": 473064.9, "trend": 36.82742, "fair_value": 27.517018, "relative_strength": 3.835941, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.765828, "energy": 62.830456, "activity_lines": [ 39.225667, 38.90093, 38.221747, 37.544042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }