{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64b2e5c4-46f0-464d-a965-c51c0d311e58", "symbol": "BGIP3", "name": "Banco do Estado de Sergipe S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.266, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.076, "architecture_energy": 83.22, "architecture_maturity": 19.188, "architecture_confidence": 76.464, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.7, "rotation_up": 12.32, "upward_expansion": 19.86, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 78.2, "downward_expansion": 97.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.839999, 48.296, 50.926431, 52.619272 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 45.709999, "trend_reference": 53.14222, "distance_from_trend": -0.139855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.94007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.332462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090081, "excess_performance": -0.033033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526716, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.638699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003325, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3800, "relative_activity": 1.149773, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.832073, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066523, "annualized_volatility": 0.290059, "from_high_reference": -0.286064, "from_low_reference": 0.65243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.14222, "fair_value_reference": 29.94007, "structural_low": 45.189999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002856, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.022587, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.390672, "worst_return": -0.0652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047618, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.422713, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112979, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.060447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.133683, "worst_return": -0.003375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.269274, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { 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29.36295, "relative_strength": 3.998593, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.940839, "energy": 64.237235, "activity_lines": [ 49.06, 50.437273, 53.271789, 53.744201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.299999, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3125.0, "trend": 52.610239, "fair_value": 29.560938, "relative_strength": 3.230247, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.444208, "energy": 73.157067, "activity_lines": [ 48.154666, 49.720182, 52.47378, 53.428853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3120.0, "trend": 52.948265, "fair_value": 29.7556, "relative_strength": 0.799192, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.69708, "energy": 75.570418, "activity_lines": [ 47.591333, 49.112181, 51.742471, 53.086257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.709999, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 3305.0, "trend": 53.14222, "fair_value": 29.94007, "relative_strength": 0.332462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.076276, "energy": 83.220197, "activity_lines": [ 46.839999, 48.296, 50.926431, 52.619272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }