{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64be4783-665c-4eb9-b4d8-3b6b70e0ea34", "symbol": "ESTCN", "name": "Elastic N.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.721, "architecture_energy": 57.729, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.44, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.55, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 42.79, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1053.436686, 1040.689839, 1113.293541, 1176.22655 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1117.890015, "trend_reference": 1248.745675, "distance_from_trend": -0.10479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1659.776742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.347779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181632, "excess_performance": -0.126966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326482, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034617, "annualized_volatility": 0.362803, "from_high_reference": -0.322733, "from_low_reference": 0.094672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1248.745675, "fair_value_reference": 1659.776742, 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1287.012004, "fair_value": 1663.542575, "relative_strength": -29.211032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.313328, "energy": 68.518109, "activity_lines": [ 1021.210022, 1051.648203, 1160.81549, 1218.757967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1021.210022, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.45, "trend": 1273.182339, "fair_value": 1662.080716, "relative_strength": -28.159116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.920107, "energy": 67.905904, "activity_lines": [ 1021.210022, 1035.867113, 1140.263777, 1201.609452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1021.210022, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.45, "trend": 1259.352673, "fair_value": 1660.618857, "relative_strength": -27.936459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.464092, "energy": 67.141326, "activity_lines": [ 1021.210022, 1026.354932, 1121.353921, 1185.353174 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1117.890015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.45, "trend": 1248.745675, "fair_value": 1659.776742, "relative_strength": -20.347779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.720795, "energy": 57.728928, "activity_lines": [ 1053.436686, 1040.689839, 1113.293541, 1176.22655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }