{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64c02abe-c7ea-4ace-aa75-b5740112bb74", "symbol": "300209", "name": "Xingyun Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.121, "architecture_energy": 52.26, "architecture_maturity": 54.062, "architecture_confidence": 64.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 50.99, "upward_expansion": 75.45, "deceleration": 73.65, "rotation_down": 23.89, "downward_expansion": 6.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.646, 28.182364, 26.221048, 22.672817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.189999, "trend_reference": 17.803, "distance_from_trend": 1.088974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.780769, "distance_from_fair_value": 4.484628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 194.077849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 3.919312, "excess_performance": 3.911912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 1.088974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.684773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 4.484628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.574503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.940778, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.239018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 3.919312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.422473, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 902204483, "relative_activity": 2.203949, "balance": 2.422473, "dry_up": 1.493663, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150702, "annualized_volatility": 0.874727, "from_high_reference": -0.021316, "from_low_reference": 6.335306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.803, "fair_value_reference": 6.780769, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.034791, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020747, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.387156, "worst_return": -0.210593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.099978, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.000548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244932, "worst_return": -0.155107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05979, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.391892, "worst_return": -0.146628, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.339168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 107.598118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.739276, "energy": 35.349645, "activity_lines": [ 25.306667, 26.211273, 23.459, 19.912473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.780001, "volume": 589978594, "typical_volume": 377524178.25, "trend": 16.004333, "fair_value": 6.400705, "relative_strength": 130.304563, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.793732, "energy": 27.055867, "activity_lines": [ 25.115334, 26.027455, 24.033905, 20.586323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.9, "volume": 482151181, "typical_volume": 390774618.55, "trend": 16.745, "fair_value": 6.560705, "relative_strength": 143.723194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.839691, "energy": 28.294328, "activity_lines": [ 25.824, 26.233091, 24.729429, 21.353785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.189999, "volume": 902204483, "typical_volume": 409358157.5, "trend": 17.803, "fair_value": 6.780769, "relative_strength": 194.077849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.120841, "energy": 52.260211, "activity_lines": [ 29.646, 28.182364, 26.221048, 22.672817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }