{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64c37a28-fcc8-44e5-88ef-3aa798de8e02", "symbol": "603018", "name": "China Design Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.142, "architecture_energy": 45.106, "architecture_maturity": 64.586, "architecture_confidence": 84.459, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 6.76, "deceleration": 59.01, "rotation_down": 47.19, "downward_expansion": 75.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.231333, 5.271249, 5.49126, 5.671715 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.90039, "distance_from_trend": -0.110228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.370352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.088804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.206554, "excess_performance": -0.16335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17587, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500616, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38250019, "relative_activity": 1.046487, "balance": 0.500616, "dry_up": 1.032525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067678, "annualized_volatility": 0.217402, "from_high_reference": -0.242873, "from_low_reference": 0.060606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.90039, "fair_value_reference": 6.370352, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.028125, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.001885, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.301917, "worst_return": -0.085947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.085107, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0347, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.400958, "worst_return": -0.107623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.12391, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.075323, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.35623, "worst_return": -0.091634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 6.005414, "fair_value": 6.401714, "relative_strength": -9.430997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.066697, "energy": 57.525879, "activity_lines": [ 5.314053, 5.422347, 5.65711, 5.82258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.98, "volume": 43059600, "typical_volume": 37788462.25, "trend": 5.961166, "fair_value": 6.390167, "relative_strength": -16.023001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.867896, "energy": 60.057023, "activity_lines": [ 5.204333, 5.315992, 5.575694, 5.756425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.33, "volume": 35042178, "typical_volume": 36975353.85, "trend": 5.93184, "fair_value": 6.37997, "relative_strength": -9.954747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.914936, "energy": 49.300346, "activity_lines": [ 5.234667, 5.295189, 5.53463, 5.715704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 38250019, "typical_volume": 36550876.45, "trend": 5.90039, "fair_value": 6.370352, "relative_strength": -13.088804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.142011, "energy": 45.105967, "activity_lines": [ 5.231333, 5.271249, 5.49126, 5.671715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }