{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64cf538c-caaa-451f-b837-df1e972cc7ed", "symbol": "600988", "name": "Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Group Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.558, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.462, "architecture_energy": 33.253, "architecture_maturity": 64.394, "architecture_confidence": 84.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.69, "rotation_up": 64.44, "upward_expansion": 40.52, "deceleration": 43.67, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 15.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.298667, 35.124001, 35.101802, 36.217876 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.09, "trend_reference": 36.998554, "distance_from_trend": 0.137612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.195963, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.81454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.27588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017457, "excess_performance": 0.025747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.81454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.262759, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.379954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356040466, "relative_activity": 1.415979, "balance": 1.379954, "dry_up": 1.520728, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11762, "annualized_volatility": 0.655778, "from_high_reference": -0.175809, "from_low_reference": 0.813925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.998554, "fair_value_reference": 23.195963, "structural_low": 25.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.033114, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.045954, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.251718, "worst_return": -0.136849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025876, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.021859, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.313156, "worst_return": -0.1641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021359, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014949, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.667696, "worst_return": -0.210303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 31.74, "volume": 385910351, "typical_volume": 242187433.4, "trend": 36.215877, "fair_value": 22.702552, "relative_strength": 2.227979, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.023382, "energy": 40.840404, "activity_lines": [ 31.08, 31.132456, 34.307522, 35.642403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.490002, "volume": 443167028, "typical_volume": 240048358.75, "trend": 36.376139, "fair_value": 22.854019, "relative_strength": 15.20486, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.341418, "energy": 19.828455, "activity_lines": [ 33.088001, 31.955915, 34.285556, 35.660089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.560001, "volume": 344398480, "typical_volume": 242325627.45, "trend": 36.628157, "fair_value": 23.019307, "relative_strength": 23.232904, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.742677, "energy": 17.259589, "activity_lines": [ 35.726001, 33.352728, 34.570806, 35.865499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.09, "volume": 356040466, "typical_volume": 251444693.55, "trend": 36.998554, "fair_value": 23.195963, "relative_strength": 26.27588, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.462176, "energy": 33.25331, "activity_lines": [ 38.298667, 35.124001, 35.101802, 36.217876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }